THE employment outlook is getting bleaker, but continued strong net exports should keep the Australian economy from getting into too much trouble.
Australia posted its fifth consecutive monthly trade surplus in June, which also was the highest surplus in 18 months, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows.
It was still small at $602 million, but better than the $507 million surplus in May.
During the month, exports fell one per cent and imports fell two per cent, the ABS said.
However, job advertisements have fallen for the fifth consecutive month, down 1.1 per cent in July, seasonally adjusted, the latest ANZ Job Ads Survey showed.
RBC senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the job ads data was disappointing for an economy that was moving away from one driven by mining investment
"The ANZ jobs data shows the unemployment rate will continue to rise for the remainder of the year," she said.
"We actually think the most important data was the ANZ job vacancies data; the trend is very much all in one direction," she said.
Ms Ong said the bright spot was the trade data, saying the fall in exports was a bit of a correction from the previous months.
"The data shows you're going to be relying on net exports for economic growth, the domestic demand is going to be weak and that is going to be further exacerbated by a deterioration in the labour market," she said.
JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said although the trade data came in lower than expected, it was still the best result since December 2011.
"It definitely does signal that Australia's external sector is healing to a certain extent, and making the required transition toward an improvement in net exports, which will add to growth as the peak in resource investment approaches later this year," Mr Kennedy said.
"That's going to help to plug some of the holes that will be left over from fading resource investments."
CommSec chief economist Craig James played down the disappointing job ads figures as a timely gauge of the current employment market.
"Job seekers are using social media and company websites more often to check for available work," he said.
"Businesses wont hire staff in a big way until the election is out of the road."
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