THE parachuting of Peter Beattie into a marginal Brisbane seat will fail, a seasoned political expert says.
Labor is hoping to pick up seven seats in Queensland to offset likely losses in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania with the help of a star candidate.
But veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras says Beattie, who served as Queensland premier from 1998 to 2007, won't win the federal seat of Forde, which the Liberals hold by 1.6 per cent.
"The locals will see he has been parachuted in and they'll see him as being a premier who carries so much baggage," the visiting fellow with the Australian Catholic University told AAP.
Beattie, until recently a resident of California, has promised to sell his house more than 30km away from the electorate he is contesting, which covers the economically-poorer edge of Brisbane and Gold Coast hinterland.
Now based at his brother's house at Cornubia, the self-described media tart is hoping to join another former state premier, Foreign Minister Bob Carr from NSW, in a re-elected Rudd government cabinet.
But to even become a federal minister, assuming Beattie wins Forde, Labor will have to pick up seven seats in Queensland to counter probable losses in western Sydney, the NSW central coast, Melbourne's east, regional Victoria and Tasmania.
Even then, Labor has a mighty job minimising its unpopularity in NSW, following corruption findings against two former state ALP ministers.
Labor is also struggling in Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's home state of Queensland, with a ReachTEL poll, conducted for the Seven Network, showing the Liberal National Party's Bert Van Manen leading Mr Beattie 54 to 46 in Forde.
If that result is replicated across the Sunshine State, Labor could lose its marginal Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie, and fail to take Bonner, Brisbane and Longman from the coalition, not to mention the LNP's marginal regional seats of Herbert, Dawson, Flynn and Leichhardt.
But if Beattie succeeds, he will be the first former Queensland premier to sit in federal parliament since 1974, when Democratic Labor Party senator Vince Gair was controversially appointed the ambassador to Ireland.
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