The Reserve Bank of Australia's board is not expected to cut the cash rate at its next meeting. Source: AAP
THERE'S not going to be a rate cut on Tuesday and borrowers can blame another surge in mining investment.
All 13 economists surveyed by AAP said the Reserve Bank on Australia (RBA) would not reduce the cash rate at its March 5 board meeting, but nine of those expect a rate cut some time in the next six months.
On Wednesday, money markets were pricing in a 33 per cent chance of a March rate cut but by Friday that had fallen to a 17 per cent chance.
So what changed?
On Thursday, official figures showed businesses were planning to increase their investment spending this financial year and the next.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said its fifth estimate of capital expenditure (capex) for this financial year was four per cent higher than for the previous financial year.
Those figures allayed concerns that the boom in mining investment was coming to an end, concerns sparked by large fall in commodity prices in 2012 that caused some of Australia's biggest mining to shelve some projects.
HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said the capex figures showed there was a lot of investment in the pipeline that would stimulate the economy for months to come.
"Even the forward-looking capital expenditure survey, which some feared could deliver bad news, was generally positive overall," he said.
The RBA delivered four interest rate cuts in calendar year 2012, taking the cash rate to three per cent by December.
Mr Bloxham said the surge in business investment should give these rate cuts time to take effect on the economy.
"The continued rise in mining investment, as (the building of) large LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects continue, should support growth, which should give the RBA more time to see the impact on the non-mining sectors of the cuts it has already delivered," he said.
Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said the capex figures showed the peak in mining investment would be more of a plateau.
He said spending on the building of new mines and resource projects as a percentage of economic growth was expected to remain constant in the coming financial year.
"The latest capex data lowered market expectations of a near-term RBA rate cut," Mr Blythe said.
"More importantly, the rollover in mining capex that has worried the RBA looks quite muted.
"The data indicated that capex growth in 2012/13 will be lower than earlier estimates but initial readings on 2013/14 confirm that total capex is holding up."
St George economist Janu Chan said there won't be a cash rate cut in March but expects one in April.
"We think there's room for one more rate cut given that inflation's quite subdued, growth is expected to be below trend this year, and also the labour markets remain quite soft," she said.
"There is room for at least one more, but we don't think given recent commentary the RBA's not ready to cut rates as soon as next week.
"There is enough evidence to suggest that the RBA will want to wait and see given that there's perhaps just enough of an impact from earlier rate cuts to the economy."
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