Asylum boats big election issue for Labor

ASYLUM seeker boats will continue to haunt the Gillard government as it runs for re-election in 2013.

Federal Labor this year embraced some tough new asylum seeker policies in a bid to stop the boats but so far, they haven't worked.

A series of asylum seeker boat disasters in the first half of the year prompted the new hardline stance.

The government commissioned an expert panel led by former defence chief Angus Houston to formulate a comprehensive plan to staunch the flow of boats and break a long-running political deadlock on the issue.

In August, the government adopted all 22 of the panel's recommendations, many of which called for a return to tough Howard government-era policies, including offshore processing on Nauru and Papua New Guinea's Manus Island.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard conceded it was not easy for Labor to return to the coalition policies it scrapped in 2008.

"But I tell you what is a harder thing - that is watching more people drown, and we are not going to do that," she said.

Nauru and Manus are now up and running but the boats keep coming.

That's despite the fact Labor's policy is in some ways tougher than Howard's because it introduces a 'no advantage' principle, meaning asylum seekers who get on boats to Australia won't be resettled any faster than those who go through regular channels and could spend five years on Nauru and Manus.

So far it's been a dismal failure, with more than 8000 people arriving on more than 140 boats since offshore processing was reintroduced in August. Of the 8000, about 450 have been sent to Nauru and Manus so far.

But in a weird way, the failure actually proves Labor right. It long argued the policies would not act as a real deterrent because many of those processed end up in Australia anyway.

To confuse matters further, the government announced in November it will continue to grant bridging visas to asylum seekers who are being processed onshore.

In an extension of the 'no advantage' principle, visas granted to those arriving after August will be denied work rights but will be paid a basic welfare payment.

No doubt the people smugglers will be trying to cash in on these policy anomalies, which have seen a small number of asylum seekers sent offshore, many more processed onshore and some even granted bridging visas.

The government was forced to embrace Nauru and Manus because its preferred option - the controversial Malaysian people swap deal - was ruled illegal by the High Court and it couldn't win the necessary parliamentary support to revive it.

The deal would have seen 800 asylum seekers arriving by boat being sent to Malaysia and joining the UN resettlement program in exchange for 4000 people from Malaysia who have already been deemed refugees.

Of all the short-term deterrent options, the Malaysia one seems to be the most likely to succeed given that it guarantees the first 800 arrivals will end up in Malaysia.

But despite changes to the Migration Act to permit offshore processing, the government would still need parliamentary approval to proceed with Malaysia.

That means it would need coalition or Greens support.

The chance of this happening, particularly in the lead-up to the hotly contested 2013 election, is slim to none.

In a further backflip, the Gillard government in 2012 agreed to excise the Australian mainland from the migration zone.

This effectively strips rights away from asylum seekers who arrive by boat, further reinforcing the road to offshore processing.

Labor opposed the measure when former prime minister Howard tried to get it through in 2006.

But immigration minister Chris Bowen argues it removes a "perverse incentive" that could endanger the safety of asylum seekers trying to reach the Australian mainland.

The coalition backed the move in parliament but seized on the opportunity to highlight Labor's "hypocrisy" in adopting a policy it so vehemently opposed in opposition.

And with every new boat, the opposition's immigration spokesman Scott Morrison has reminded voters of Labor's "failed" border protection policies.

This theme looks set to intensify in 2013, especially given the coalition's anti-carbon tax campaign appears to be losing steam as people get used to the changes.

Mr Bowen will continue to argue that more time is needed to implement the full suite of recommendations made by the Houston panel.

He'll also continue to speak of the challenge the government faces in winning the public relations battle against the people smugglers.

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